Changes in fire risk due to expected changes in ecosystems and weather patterns by mid- and late 21st century due to climate change; ‘up arrows’ indicate increase in fire risk and ‘down arrows’ indicate a decrease in fire risk. In transitions for boreal forest on permafrost, fire risks can first increase, then decline, and then increase again as the ecosystem changes, with soil moisture being a main driver of ground-level peat fires in the Arctic as well as boreal systems. Most studies of changes in fire risk are based on high emission scenarios.

Publication: Impacts of Short-lived Climate Forcers on Arctic Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health. Summary for Policy-makers

Type: Schematic

Caption: Changes in fire risk due to expected changes in ecosystems and weather patterns by mid- and late 21st century due to climate change; ‘up arrows’ indicate increase in fire risk and ‘down arrows’ indicate a decrease in fire risk. In transitions for boreal forest on permafrost, fire risks can first increase, then decline, and then increase again as the ecosystem changes, with soil moisture being a main driver of ground-level peat fires in the Arctic as well as boreal systems. Most studies of changes in fire risk are based on high emission scenarios.

Copyright: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)

Cartographer / Designer: Burnthebook.co.uk