Figure 4.17 Biodiversity-related changes projected to result from projected high-range warming as of 2050 (relative to 2001–2005 means). Plots show species invasion intensity, local extinction intensity, and species turnover. Species redistribution models using ESM output and current species distributions based on selected environmental variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen) to project future change indicate the Arctic could become a hotspot for species invasions and species turnover (i.e., extinction of local species and replacement by invading species) (Cheung et al., 2009).