Figure 6.6 Four scenarios for the future of the Arctic, based on future demand for Arctic resources and the stability of Arctic governance (based on work by Brigham and colleagues: Brigham, 2008, and PAME, 2009). These scenarios are ‘Arctic Race’, in which ad hoc and poorly developed governance does not keep up with the high demand for Arctic resources, resulting in a gold-rush approach; ‘Arctic Saga’, in which high demand is tempered by stable governance structures, leading to development balanced with the needs of local peoples and ecosystems; ‘Polar Lows’, in which demand does not materialize and limited governance leads to little change or development for the region; and ‘Polar Preserve’, in which stable governance pursues extensive protection of Arctic ecosystems and peoples without external geopolitical pressure.