Arctic temperature change in two different scenarios of SLCF emissions: Current Legislation and Maximum Feasible Reductions. The solid line shows the net Arctic temperature change from combined changes in all emissions (black carbon, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, methane). The shaded areas indicate how observed and projected changes in emission of SLCFs since 1990 contribute to net changes in Arctic temperature relative to 2015. Note that declining emissions of warming agents like black carbon manifest as cooling during this period. The Arctic is here defined as the area north of 60° N. The emission changes that have been used in modelling the two different scenarios are illustrated in the figure on page 14.The take-home message is that past and projected future emissions of carbon dioxide (grey shaded area) play a dominant role for Arctic warming and will continue to do so. For sulfate aerosols (yellow), a net decrease in emissions since 1990 has contributed to recent Arctic warming. The magnitude of this contribution is similar to that of carbon dioxide. Expected further reductions in sulfate aerosols will continue to contribute to Arctic warming in the next 20-30 years. This warming impact from declining concentrations is especially pronounced in the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario. Black carbon (green) contributes to warming, but decreases in emission of black carbon since 1990 have decreased its relative warming impact. Further net reductions in black carbon emissions would continue to decrease its warming impact and counteract some of the future warming from carbon dioxide and reductions in sulfate aerosols, more so in the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario than in the Current LEegislation scenario. Methane (blue) contributes to Arctic warming and an increase in methane emissions has accelerated methane’s contribution to warming since 1990. It will continue to do so in the Current LEgislation scenario. In the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario, there will only be slight net changes in methane emissions, and the contribution to future Arctic temperature changes is therefore minimal. In absolute numbers, methane will still contribute to Arctic warming, though this is barely discernable in the figure.