Figure 3.1 Observed and projected anomalies in 2-meter air temperature averaged over the land portion of the BBDS region, relative to the 1986–2005 average. The black lines represent observations (specifically, the CRU TS 3.23 tmp observational product) (Harris et al., 2014). The colored envelopes represent the likely evolution of the 20-year averages up to 2090 under the RCP4.5 (green) and RCP8.5 (red) emissions scenarios, based on CMIP5 simulations for (a) winter (December-January-February, DJF), (b) spring (March-April-May, MAM), (c) summer (June-July-August, JJA), and (d) autumn (September-October-November, SON). The CRU data are presented up to 2014. Average anomalies for each simulation are first calculated for each year and then averaged over 20-year blocks from 1986–2005 (attributed here to the year 1996) through 2080–2099 (attributed to 2090). For each attribution year, the 10th and 90th percentiles among the simulations are next calculated; fourth-order fits on these two percentile times series define the envelope boundaries.