Figure 6.6 Conceptual model for science-based management of natural resources that face climate and development/land-use impacts. The process begins with a conceptual model of the key drivers affecting the resource or ecosystem of interest, such as breeding habitat. Projected changes and impacts from climate change and development are incorporated based on local observations/expert knowledge, modeled projections, or examples from similar ecosystems elsewhere to develop a hypothesis of how the resource might change. A research, inventory, and/or monitoring plan designed to understand the most important drivers of future changes is designed and implemented to track the actual changes that occur over time. As sufficient data are collected, scientists, managers, and communities adapt their management choices to better mitigate the impacts as they are understood. Ongoing long-term monitoring is needed to continue to examine the resiliency of the resource or ecosystem in response to ongoing climate and land-use changes. (Figure by W.M. Loya.)