Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has produced 40 different emissions scenarios. Each assumes different patterns of future greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. The scenarios also describe different future pathways of technological development, economic growth and levels of international co-operation. The climate models in this report are all based on relatively optimistic scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be lower than they have been for the last ten years. As a result, these models are more likely to underestimate the rate and amount of change in the cryosphere than to overestimate it. The emissions scenarios used generate relatively similar projections for the middle of the century. After 2050, they diverge, generating a greater range of possible futures. This means that the effects of international efforts to control emissions today will be felt more strongly in the Arctic and the rest of the World at the end of the century.