Name
ID
Status
Kind
Modified
Options

Figure A6.8 Simulated summer (July, August, September) surface pH, calcite saturation state Ωcal and aragonite saturation state Ωarg for the bi-decade 2006–2025 and projected change for the period 2006–2025 to 2066–2085 under the RCP8.5 scenario.
3211
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.9 Projected change under the RCP8.5 scenario for pH, calcium carbonate saturation state and temperature in summer (July, August, September) along the transect through the Canadian Polar Shelf shown in Figure A6.8a. y-Axis indicates mid-level depth of each model level.
3212
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.10 Temporal evolution of calcium carbonate saturation state (Ωarg and Ωcal) as simulated with the NAA-CMOC model. Data shown represent a regional average for the Canadian Polar Shelf, indicated on the map. y-Axis indicates mid-level depth of each model level.
3213
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.11 Simulated temporal evolution of seasonal ice thickness averaged over the northern Beaufort Sea, southern Beaufort Sea, and Canadian Polar Shelf.
3214
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.12 Projected changes in sea surface and deep ocean variables using three ESMs (GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MPI-ESM-MR). Bold lines represent multi-model averages and trajectories are relative to the 1951–1960 average. Trajectories are shown for two climate scenarios: ‘Low CO2’ where CO2 emissions are mitigated and Paris Agreement targets are met (RCP2.6, +1.5°C global sea surface temperature) and ‘High CO2’ under ‘business-as-usual’ (RCP8.5, +3.5°C).
3215
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.13 Projected changes in maximum catch potential (MCP) for all species in response to all climate change stressors (e.g., ocean acidification, temperature) and invertebrate species in response to multiple stressors with and without modelled effects of ocean acidification (OA). In the upper panel, bold lines represent multi-model means while faint lines represent results from three ESMs (GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MPI-ESM-MR). Lines in the lower panel are multi-model averages of the three ESMs. Changes in MCP are 10-year running means and relative to the 2001–2010 average. In the lower panel, with and without OA effects refers to an explicit inclusion or exclusion of OA effects on growth and survival. Including those OA effects leads to a much higher percentage loss in invertebrate species MCP.
3216
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.14 Projected changes in maximum catch potential (MCP) of marine invertebrate species due to ocean acidification in addition to other climate change stressors (e.g., temperature) for low and high climate change scenarios. Differences between model simulations with and without modeled ocean acidification impacts were calculated to determine how pH affects maximum catch potential. Faint colored lines represent simulations with the various ESMs and bold lines represent multi-model averages. Black line and grey bands represent the selected regression model and errors. Results shown are 10-year running means and relative to the 2001–2010 period. Open circles represent the year for the simulation results.
3217
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.15 Projected species responses under the high CO2 emission scenario (RCP8.5) by 2100 (relative to the 2001–2010 period) on the maximum catch potential (MCP) for all exploited species and the additional impact of ocean acidification (OA) for invertebrate species. The two lower plots show absolute species turnover number and the rate of species turnover.
3218
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.16 Ocean acidification impacts on maximum catch potential (MCP) by 2100, summarized by species group for two climate change scenarios: low CO2 (RCP2.6) and high CO2 (RCP8.5). Results are an average from 2091–2100 and are relative to the 2001–2010 period. The box plots use standard metrics. The middle line within the box is the median and the lower and upper hinges of the box are the first and third quartile (25th and 75th percentile) range. The extent of the whiskers goes to the furthest data point but no further than 1.5×IQR from the lower and upper hinges, where IQR is the interquartile range (distance between first and third quartiles).
3219
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.17 Projected changes in abundance for Arctic cod for models with and without the effects of ocean acidification. Each line is the multi-model average of the three ESMs (GFDL, IPSL, MPI). Changes in abundance are 10-year running means and relative to the 2001–2010 average. Red indicates the high CO2 emission scenario (RCP8.5) and blue indicates low emissions (RCP2.6).
3220
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.18 Projected changes in abundance for Arctic cod in response to all stressors (ocean acidification and other climate stressors, such as temperature) and in response to ocean acidification (OA) only. Changes in abundance are 10-year running average of multi-model means and relative to the 2001–2010 average.
3221
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.3 Proposed eco-units outlined in the Canadian science advisory report (DFO, 2015).
3206
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.4 A young girl from Cambridge Bay helps collect Arctic cod for scientific research and Arctic cod swarm near Cambridge Bay in 2012.
3207
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.2 The Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Kitikmeot Region (and major communities).
3205
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.6 Summary of surface water conditions in the Baffin Bay / Davis Strait region for the period 1997–2015.
3184
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.7 Summary images of the Arctic outflow from north to south for the period 1997–2015.
3185
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.3 Schematic illustration of the Pandalus borealis life cycle (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 2018).
3181
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.4 Ocean current circulation in the Baffin Bay / Davis Strait region.
3182
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A3.3 Temperature effects on the optimal management of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) with and without the effect of acidification. Depicted are catch and recruits (top panel), fishing mortality and mean age of catch under optimal management (middle panel), and net revenue and spawning stock biomass (lower panel). The left-hand column show results for warming only, while the right-hand column show results for the combined effect of warming and acidification. It is important to note the marked change in scale for the two sets of vertical axes.
3178
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A3.2 ‘Burning ember’ plots showing the combined effect of fishing and warming on the Northeast Arctic cod stock without taking into account extra mortality due to acidification (left panel) and the combined effect of fishing and warming plus the extra mortality due to acidification (right panel). In both plots, the January temperature ranges from 2.7°C (the minimum in the time series) to 6.7°C (somewhat above the maximum of the historical time series) and fishing mortality ranges from zero to one. Color codes show the risk-of-collapse-indicator, with darker shades indicating a higher risk of stock collapse.
3177
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.1 Conceptual model of the potential impacts of ocean acidification on the Greenland shrimp fishery and dependent communities.
3179
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.2 Distribution of the northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis (Bergström, 2000).
3180
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.5 Summary of aragonite saturation values in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait for the period 1997–2015. Data are from GLODAPv2 (Olsen et al., 2016) and Azetsu-Scott and Meire (pers. comm.).
3183
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.8 Summary images of the Greenland Shelf from south to north for the period 1997–2015.
3186
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.9 Temporal variation in aragonite saturation state (Ωarg) along Baffin Island and Greenland Shelves and Slopes between 1997 and 2015.
3187
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.10 Simulated aragonite saturation state and pH in the Canadian Arctic for the periods 2006–2025 and 2066–2085 under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario.
3188
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.11 Multi-model comparison of bi-decadal averages in annual mean surface ocean pH, annual mean aragonite saturation state, maximum mixed layer depth in March, and sea-ice concentration in March and September under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario for Baffin Bay (~65–77°N, 60–78°W). The graphic shows individual model averages as well as the multi-model mean and ±1 standard deviation. Note that pH is not available for MIROC-ESM and mixed layer depth is not available for MIROC-ESM and HadGEM2-ES.
3189
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.12 Summary of mean model differences between the periods 2080–2100 and 1980–2000 for 11 CMIP5 ESMs. Plots show change in annual specific primary production and surface nitrate concentration. Hatching indicates where 80% of the models agree on the sign of the change (Vancoppenolle et al., 2013).
3190
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.13 Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, and harbors graduated by size.
3191
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.14 Total annual catch of northern shrimp in NAFO Divisions 0A, 1A-1F. Data from Arboe (2014).
3192
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.15 Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for northern shrimp in West Greenland by NAFO Division for the period 1975–2014. Data from Arboe (2014).
3193
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.16 Comparison of catch, effort and catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for northern shrimp in West Greenland by NAFO Division for the period 1970–2014. Data from Arboe (2014).
3194
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.17 Volume and value of onshore Greenland northern shrimp processing for the period 1986–2016.
3195
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.18 Somatic growth in northern shrimp by sex, adjusted from Bergstrom (1992) for shrimp off West Greenland. The green vertical line marks year 2 of body growth and the horizontal purple line shows that length at year 2 is about 12 mm. Note that an individual shrimp will only be one sex at a time. The graph should thus be read for an individual shrimp as the male function up until the transition and the female function after the transition, which is here modeled to occur at a little over 2 years.
3196
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.19 Transition probability function for the switch from male to female in northern shrimp.
3197
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.20 The landed biomass of northern shrimp given an effective cod biomass of 55,000 tonnes as a function of the fishing mortality (x-axis). The vertical line indicates FMSY, where the highest volume of shrimp may be harvested repeatedly over time.
3198
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.21 A shift in area-weighted average bottom temperature (Burmeister and Kingsley, 2016b).
3199
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.22 Index of the ‘effective’ cod biomass in NAFO Divisions 0A and 1. This index measures overlap between the stocks of Atlantic cod and northern shrimp (i.e., the amount of cod biomass expected to be at the right depth in the right place to predate on the shrimp) (Burmeister and Kingsley, 2016b).
3200
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.23 Pandalus borealis off West Greenland: indices of distribution and location of shrimp biomass in the West Greenland trawl survey (3-point moving averages) (Burmeister and Kingsley, 2016b).
3201
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.24 Survey biomass estimates by depth stratum for Pandalus borealis off West Greenland. Prior to 2003, only the Canadian area and the West regions; after 2003 the Northern area as well as Disko Bay and Vaigat entered the survey (Burmeister and Kingsley, 2016b).
3202
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A4.25 Index of shrimp price. Data source: Statistics Greenland.
3203
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.1 Multi-step framework linking observed trends and climate projections with impacts on subsistence fisheries. The goal is a knowledge co-production approach linking Indigenous Traditional Knowledge with the Scientific Method.
3204
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.3 Distribution of Ωarg over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf based on observations over the period 1999–2011 in surface waters and bottom waters. The white dashed curve shows the boundary between two biogeochemical provinces – the Western Biogeochemical Province and the Eastern Biogeochemical Province (modified from Semiletov et al., 2016).
3229
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.2 The Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas.
3228
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.1 Major surface ocean currents within the High Arctic, Low Arctic and subarctic areas of the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas.
3227
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.23 Arctic char – stomach contents containing about 40 Arctic cod (upper) (Cambridge Bay, 2012) and Arctic char, stomach contents dominated by zooplankton, Cambridge Bay 2011 (lower).
3226
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.22 Uncertainty in initial EwE (Ecopath with Ecosim) model parameters based on pedigree analysis. Values range from high to low for each of the main key inputs: biomass, production (production/biomass), and consumption (consumption/biomass).
3225
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.20 Estimates of present and future Arctic fisheries in Canada under a low and high CO2 emission scenario. For invertebrate species only, solid lines represent model simulations with ocean acidification (OA) effects, while dashed lines represent model simulations without OA effects. Values presented are multi-model means of three ESMs and are 10-year running means.
3223
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.19 Projected changes in abundance for Arctic cod due to ocean acidification (OA) using various values for modelled effect sizes of ocean acidification impacts: on both growth and survival (adult and larval), growth only, adult survival, and larval survival.
3222
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.21 Relative importance of different uncertainties, and their evolution. The graphic shows (a) Decadal mean surface temperature change (°C) from the historical record, with climate model estimates of uncertainty for the historical period, along with future climate projections and uncertainty. Values are normalized by means from 1961 to 1980. Natural variability derives from model interannual variability, and is assumed constant with time. Emission uncertainty is estimated as the model mean difference in projections from different scenarios. Climate response uncertainty is based on climate model spread, along with added uncertainties from the carbon cycle, as well as rough estimates of additional uncertainty from poorly modelled processes. (b) Climate response uncertainty can appear to increase when a new process is discovered to be relevant, but such increases reflect a quantification of previously unmeasured uncertainty, or (c) can decrease with additional model improvements and observational constraints. The given uncertainty range of 90% means that the temperature is estimated to be in that range, with a probability of 90%. From Cubasch et al. (2013: FAQ 1.1 Figure 1).
3224
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.6 Iceland Sea surface water pHT (total pH) changes in winter (based on Olafsson et al., 2009).
3232
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.5 Trends in hydrography and the marine carbonate system for the Greenland Sea (based on Skjelvan et al., 2014).
3231
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.4 Observed evolution of aragonite saturation state Ωarg for sampling stations on and off the shelf. The black line indicates an aragonite saturation state equal to one (Ωarg = 1.0). The location plots show the distribution of observations (black dots) and respective averaging regions (red lines) for stations deeper than 250 m (off-shelf waters) and shallower than 250 m (shelf waters).
3230
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.7 Surface aragonite saturation state Ωarg as simulated under the RCP8.5 scenario by six ESMs (Steiner et al., 2014).
3233
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 2.8 Reduction in bottom water pHT (total pH) between bi-decadal averages 2000–2019 and 2050–2069 (Wallhead et al., 2017).
3234
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure 4.1 Locations of the case studies.
3235
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.7 Multi-model comparison of bi-decadal averages for Canada Basin (68°–79°N, 124°–160°W). Plots show projected change in annual mean surface ocean pH, annual mean aragonite saturation state, maximum mixed layer depth in March, and sea ice concentration in March and September for RCP8.5. Shown are individual model averages as well as the multi-model mean and standard deviation. Note that pH is not available for MIROC-ESM and maximum mixed layer depth in March is not available for MIROC-ESM and HadGEM2-ES. Based on Steiner et al. (2014).
3210
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.6 Model resolution of the North Atlantic Arctic Model (Hu and Myers, 2013). Color barn indicates model resolution in km, showing highest resolution in the Canadian Arctic.
3209
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A6.5 Arctic marine food web centered around the key fish species Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida). Diagram adapted from Welch et al. (1993). Arrows indicate main energy transfers. For some species insufficient information is available (e.g., other zooplankton) and interaction with potential new species (e.g., salmon species and killer whale) is not yet clear.
3208
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.5 Properties across the East Siberian shelf break, September 2014, for the stations noted on the locator maps.
3166
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.6 Properties across Canada Basin in August/September 2005, for the stations noted on the locator map.
3167
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.7 Silicate profiles, color coded by Ωarg, at the tip of the Morris Jesup Rise in 1991.

3168
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.8 Properties across the East Greenland Current in May 2002, for the stations noted on the locator map.

3169
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.9 Properties across Barrow Strait in 2005, Smith Sound in 2003 and Davis Strait in 2005, for the stations noted on the locator map.
3170
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.10 Summary of conditions relevant to acidification in the upper waters of the Arctic Ocean and its export to the Atlantic. The arrows indicate the general flow of the upper waters.
3171
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A2.1 Hysteresis plot for the kelp-urchin dynamical model with no stochasticity, varying the parameter rU (urchin recruitment flux) from 0 to 75.3 and back again to 0.
3172
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A2.2 The kelp-urchin dynamical model is run 500 times with the default parameter set and stochastic urchin recruitment. Initial conditions are those of an urchin barren. Plot ‘a’ compares model output with observed data from urchin barrens in Norway north of 68°N (Ling et al., 2015). Each bar shows how frequently an observation or simulation ends in a state with a given urchin abundance range (0–10, 10–20, …, 150–160). Plot ‘b’ compares model age distribution with observed data from Hammerfest urchin barrens (Fagerli et al., 2015). Only urchins of ages 2+ are considered owing to potential biases in the observations. The graphic shows urchin abundance per one-year age class as a percentage of the total number of urchins of age 2+. Plot ‘c’ compares model biomass against size-class distribution with observed data from Hammerfest urchin barrens (Fagerli et al., 2015). Only urchins over 20 mm in size are considered owing to potential biases in the observations. The plot shows the amount of urchin biomass per size class as a percentage of the total urchin biomass.
3173
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A2.3 Urchin size-at-age relationships in observations from Fagerli et al. (2015) and in the fitted model for the Hammerfest kelp sites, the Hammerfest urchin barren sites, and the Vega urchin barren sites. For clarity, error bars are displaced from age-class central values (0.5, 1.5, …, 14.5 years).

3174
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A2.4 Simulated annual urchin harvest yield (gonad biomass per m2) and urchin barren/kelp regrowth probability as a function of the minimum harvested test diameter. Left-hand columns show results for present-day conditions and right-hand columns show the impacts of near-term ocean warming and acidification (2030–2050, SRES A1B, corresponding to +0.8°C, +100 μatm pCO2 ~ -0.1 pH).
3175
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A3.1 Current distribution of the Northeast Arctic cod stock in the Barents Sea.
3176
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.1 General circulation of water masses in the Arctic Ocean.
3162
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.2 Properties in the upper 300 m of the inflowing Atlantic water as observed in Fram Strait in May 2002 and the St Anna Trough in July 1996, for the stations noted on the locator maps.
3163
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.3 Properties along a section from the Lena delta to the outer Laptev Sea in 2008.
3164
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17

Figure A1.4 Properties in the upper 300 m at the Laptev Sea shelf break in 1996 and 2014, for the stations noted on the locator maps.
3165
Active
Graphics
11.08.20 | 08:17