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Simplified illustration of how the key finding and recommendations in the AMAP 2021 SLCF assessment are based on a combination of data from emissions and observations; scenarios of future emissions; and model simulations to estimate impacts on air quality and the climate, and how this information can feed into policy development.
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Mechanisms by which SLCFs can influence Arctic climate. They include the impacts on the region’s heat balance as aerosols absorb or scatter the sun’s energy in the atmosphere, as greenhouse gases absorb heat, and and as particles darken light surfaces, such as snow and ice, making them less effective in reflecting the sun’s energy. Aerosols also affect the properties of clouds and their ability to reflect light. In addition to impacts in the Arctic, the impacts of SLCFs on the heat balance at mid- and lower latitudes affect the amount of heat that is transported to the Arctic.
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Arctic temperature change in two different scenarios of SLCF emissions: Current Legislation and Maximum Feasible Reductions. The solid line shows the net Arctic temperature change from combined changes in all emissions (black carbon, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, methane). The shaded areas indicate how observed and projected changes in emission of SLCFs since 1990 contribute to net changes in Arctic temperature relative to 2015. Note that declining emissions of warming agents like black carbon manifest as cooling during this period. The Arctic is here defined as the area north of 60° N. The emission changes that have been used in modelling the two different scenarios are illustrated in the figure on page 14.The take-home message is that past and projected future emissions of carbon dioxide (grey shaded area) play a dominant role for Arctic warming and will continue to do so. For sulfate aerosols (yellow), a net decrease in emissions since 1990 has contributed to recent Arctic warming. The magnitude of this contribution is similar to that of carbon dioxide. Expected further reductions in sulfate aerosols will continue to contribute to Arctic warming in the next 20-30 years. This warming impact from declining concentrations is especially pronounced in the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario. Black carbon (green) contributes to warming, but decreases in emission of black carbon since 1990 have decreased its relative warming impact. Further net reductions in black carbon emissions would continue to decrease its warming impact and counteract some of the future warming from carbon dioxide and reductions in sulfate aerosols, more so in the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario than in the Current LEegislation scenario. Methane (blue) contributes to Arctic warming and an increase in methane emissions has accelerated methane’s contribution to warming since 1990. It will continue to do so in the Current LEgislation scenario. In the Maximum Feasible Reduction scenario, there will only be slight net changes in methane emissions, and the contribution to future Arctic temperature changes is therefore minimal. In absolute numbers, methane will still contribute to Arctic warming, though this is barely discernable in the figure.
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Human hair: 50-70 microns in diameter; PM2.5: Combustion particles, organic compounds, metals, etc. <2.5 microns in diameter; PM10 Dust, pollen, mould, etc. <10 microns in diameter
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Changes in premature death from PM2.5 in Arctic Council and Observer regions in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015 if emissions are reduced by implementing current legislation (CLE scenario) and by applying maximum feasible reduction in emissions (MFR scenario).
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Left plot: Monitoring data from Alert, Canada showing the historic decline in black carbon (top) and sulfate aerosols (bottom).Right plot: Trends in methane at Zeppelin (Svalbard).
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Relative changes in emissions under the Current Legislation (CLE) scenario in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015, and further reduction potential under the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenario compared to the CLE scenario in 2030 and 2050.
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Changes in fire risk due to expected changes in ecosystems and weather patterns by mid- and late 21st century due to climate change; ‘up arrows’ indicate increase in fire risk and ‘down arrows’ indicate a decrease in fire risk. In transitions for boreal forest on permafrost, fire risks can first increase, then decline, and then increase again as the ecosystem changes, with soil moisture being a main driver of ground-level peat fires in the Arctic as well as boreal systems. Most studies of changes in fire risk are based on high emission scenarios.
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